Matt Graham - Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in Defense of Democratic Principles

Talk Title: Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in Defense of Democratic Principles (co-authored with Milan Svolik)

Abstract: Voter turnout is an important determinant of electoral shifts but is mostly absent from research on electoral accountability for violations of democratic principles in the United States. Using candidate choice experiments, we examine how violations of democratic principles affect three separate mechanisms that collectively determine electoral shifts: vote-switching, turnout among voters who support candidates who violate democratic principles (“D− candidates”), and turnout among voters who oppose D− candidates. In two studies of hypothetical candidates, we find evidence for each mechanism, suggesting that shifts in turnout and vote choice can each serve as a check on violations of democratic principles. However, increases in turnout intentions among D− opponents are small, suggesting limited potential for “backlash” in the form of a turnout surge by pro-democracy voters. In a third study focusing on primary elections between real-world candidates, we find little evidence that supporters of gerrymandering face an electoral penalty. We also find strong evidence that both turnout and vote-switching work to the benefit of Republican candidates who support efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election; turnout intentions increase among D− supporters (an “activation” effect) and decline among D+ supporters (an “acquiescence” effect). This suggests that turnout and vote choice effects are conditional on the public’s understanding of democratic principles, a finding that also emerges in the two studies of hypothetical candidates.

Results are preliminary. Prior to the talk we hope to add an additional study from the 2024 CES.